2025 Tesla Model Y ‘Juniper’ Is A Critical Update — With Baggage

The Tesla Model Y update is set to be one of the hottest EVs in 2025 if not the hottest EV in sales in the U.S. But it comes as Tesla fends off competition and faces a new U.S. president.

Status quo: Model Y is leading

The Model Y has been the perennial EV sales leader and was the best selling EV in the U.S. in the third quarter, selling around 86,800 cars, according to Cox Automotive. It far outsold the nearest non-Tesla EV competitor, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, which saw sales of around 13,400 cars. (The Model 3 was No.2 at 58,423 and the Cybertruck was No. 3 at 16,692).

1. Model Y
2. Model 3
3. Cybertruck
4. Ford Mustang Mach-E
5. Honda Prologue

And the Model Y’s leadership was underscored this week by Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe when he said (via Green Car Reports) that the Model Y sets the bar for all EVs under $50,000.

But not sustainable without changes

Coming up on the 5 year mark since the first deliveries, the design of the Tesla crossover is past its prime. Though the Y maintained its No.1 position in the U.S. in the third quarter, it saw a 9% percent drop in year-to-year sales. That’s a red flag. In the traditional car industry, refreshes or “facelifts” typically occur every 3-4 years. The “Juniper” refresh would bring the Model Y in line with Tesla’s latest design language and technology, most notably the language seen in the Highland refresh of the Model 3.

Demand weakness and lease buyouts

“Tesla has been underperforming the rest of the EV market since February,” said Tom Libby, an analyst at S&P Global Mobility. While that’s not surprising considering all of the new EV competition that will inevitably chip away at Tesla’s dominant position, he believes more frequent redesigns is a “requirement” to be competitive. The Tesla Model S went about six years without any significant changes.

MORE FROMFORBES ADVISOR

Best High-Yield Savings Accounts Of 2024

By Kevin Payne,Contributor

Best 5% Interest Savings Accounts of 2024

By Cassidy Horton,Contributor

And another omen of weakening demand could be that Tesla has once again begun to offer lease buyouts — this time retroactively — possibly an indication of demand weakness for aging designs like the Model Y, i.e., that it’s more cost-effective to sell the car to the lease holder rather than reclaim the car and try to resell it on the open market.

Elon Musk’s shadow looms large

Musk is now a high-profile part of the Trump Administration as the co-head of DOGE, Department of Government Efficiency. Some buyers may take a dim view of that. But more important to consumers is his obsession with vehicle autonomy. It’s not known how this will affect future vehicles — and demand for those vehicles — but any new product or product update will be about prioritizing and optimizing Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self Driving.

Changes: Model Y Juniper hiding in plain sight

What will the Model Y Juniper look like? A lot can be garnered from the refreshed Model 3. That includes:

• Sleeker nose: The front end has a more aerodynamic profile, with a smoother transition from the hood to the bumper. This contributes to the improved drag coefficient, boosting range.
• Redesigned headlights: The headlights are slimmer and more angular, giving the Model 3 a more modern and aggressive look.
• Simplified bumper: The front bumper has a cleaner design, enhancing the car’s overall sleekness.

Other changes — featured in the Model 3 — may include better range, improved motor/performance, smoother ride, new/more spartan interior, a quieter cabin, and possible improvements in computing power and sensor capabilities for Autopilot and Full Self Driving.

Downside: price sans federal tax credit?

With the refreshed Model Y possibly coming out in the same time frame as President-elect Trump taking office, major changes to — including elimination of— the federal EV incentive may be coming. Right now, the Model Y (and Model 3) is offered with the $7,500 tax credit for both purchases and leases. This keeps the starting price of the Y down — to as low as $36K (new RWD Model Y inventory). It’s anybody’s guess what may happen next. Some states could step in to make up the difference, though California — Tesla’s biggest market — has hinted at excluding Tesla.

This could be viewed as a possible downside to waiting for the update. Some buyers may want to get a Model Y now while they are guaranteed the $7,500 price break.

Cybercab elements?

One left-field question is whether it will incorporate any Cybercab design elements. Probably not. But the Cybercab does point to Tesla’s future design language. One thing is certain: the Model Y Juniper will be fine tuned for Full Self Driving. That’s the main pillar of Tesla’s future and the core of the Cybercab.